Présidentielle américaine: le 2e débat Biden-Trump peut-il inverser la tendance des sondages ?

Présidentielle américaine: le 2e débat Biden-Trump peut-il inverser la tendance des sondages ?

Jeudi soir avait lieu le dernier débat télévisé hier soir entre Donald Trump et Joe Biden, à 12 jours de la présidentielle aux Etats-Unis. Les deux hommes étaient à Nashville, dans le Tennessee. Pendant une heure et demie le président américain et l’ancien vice-président ont défendu leurs points de vue avec moins d’agressivité que lors de leur premier face à face au cours duquel Donald Trump n’avait cessé d’interrompre son interlocuteur. Paul Schor, historien, spécialiste des Etats-Unis et maître de conférences à l’Université Paris Diderot, est notre invité.

Rfi : jeudi soir, le duel Trump-Biden fut plus apaisé que lors du premier débat organisé fin septembre. Que retenez-vous de la stratégie, de la posture adoptée par chaque candidat ?

Paul Schor : Ce (modus operandi) a été imposé à la suite du premier débat et cela a permis aux deux candidats, au moins, de développer un peu plus leurs arguments que lors du premier débat, où Trump n’arrêtait pas d’interrompre (les échanges). Donc pour les deux c’était mieux, ça leur a permis de développer un peu plus… mais surtout, je pense – dans le cas de Biden – ce qu’il ferait, s’il gagne l’élection, ce qu’il n’avait pas pu faire lors du premier débat.

Les enjeux étaient-ils les mêmes pour Donald Trump et Joe Biden, lors de ce deuxième duel télévisé ?

La pression était beaucoup plus sur Donald Trump, parce que même si c’est lui le président sortant, comme tous les sondages le donnent assez loin derrière, il fallait qu’il renverse la tendance. Mais la difficulté pour lui, c’était de faire ça d’une façon ordonnée, en avançant des idées. En fait, je pense qu’il a continué à s’adresser aux gens qui sont déjà convaincus de voter pour lui et ce n’est pas sûr que cela suffise pour inverser ce que les sondages annoncent.

On verra ensuite si les sondages ne se sont pas trompés…

Et sur le fond, les deux candidats ont abordé de nombreux sujets. Il y a eu l’économie, l’environnement, l’immigration, la sécurité nationale et bien sûr la crise du Covid-19. Or, on le sait, les États-Unis sont aujourd’hui le plus le plus endeuillé au monde, avec plus de 222 000 décès. Donald Trump a promis un vaccin pour dans quelques semaines. Est-ce que cette annonce vous semble crédible ?

Non, ce n’est pas très crédible. Cela fait longtemps que Donald Trump promet régulièrement un vaccin. Il avait promis que ce serait avant les élections. Maintenant que les élections sont très proches, il ne peut pas promettre, dire « ce sera pour la semaine prochaine », alors il dit que ce sera pour bientôt. Mais à chaque fois qu’il fait ce genre d’annonce, ensuite l’industrie pharmaceutique et les chercheurs disent qu’ils travaillent très dur, mais que ce n’est pas encore prêt.

Peut-on y voir une promesse électoraliste de la part du chef de l’État américain pour tenter de montrer qu’il gère la situation, malgré le fait qu’il a été testé positif récemment au Covid-19 ?

C’est sûr que Trump est très critiqué, très attaqué sur sa gestion du Covid et Biden a bien sûr insisté là-dessus. (Pour Trump) mettre l’accent sur le vaccin, c’est aussi d’une certaine manière, dire qu’il n’y a pas besoin de prendre les mesures sur le port du masque, ou les mesures de prévention que défend Biden, puisque le vaccin serait la solution magique qui règlerait tous les problèmes. Donc cela permet aussi à Trump de justifier le fait qu’il n’en a pas fait assez.

Plus de 47 millions d’Américains ont déjà voté par anticipation. Est-ce que ce débat peut vraiment inverser la tendance pour Trump, qui on le sait, est en retard dans les sondages par rapport à Joe Biden ?

Cela peut éventuellement faire bouger quelques électeurs. Mais comme vous le dites, étant donné qu’il y a beaucoup d’électeurs qui ont déjà voté et que beaucoup d’autres, d’après les enquêtes d’opinion, sont déjà certains de savoir pour quel candidat ils vont voter, ce débat risque de ne pas suffire pour Trump.

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